The Weekly Report

  • Volume is slowing but Treasuries remain in rally mode. Turkey’s lira finally settled at 6.4/USD. It did plenty of damage on the move from 5.6 to 6.9 in one of this year’s most blistering moves. Individual sector charts are dramatic, while the overall reaction outside UST was contained. Next week’s data allow investors to regroup with fundamentals but no scheduled remarks from Fed officials. Most traders would bet on a yield rebound, yet with little confidence about where the new range settles out. Who is going to short 10s at 2.94%, for example?
  • Today largely filled in some old chart gaps left behind from July’s run from 2.84% to 2.96%. No new technical ground to discuss until US markets make it to the middle of next week. Among other issues is whether corporate supply can reappear after the horrid credit run into the weekend. Banks, semi-conductors and basic industrials are leading US stocks lower this afternoon. The dollar has built on its overnight gains throughout the day.
  • Turkey captured the headlines this week, but it’s equally important the 10s/30s curve this week steepened outside its 2018 trend. The first section explains why 10s/30s has a different trajectory than other curve segments in August. Turkey’s woes are not yet contagious, but they aren’t healthy for the world economy either. The vertical CDS chart for Turkey takes your breath away.
  • July stopped the run of benign CPI reports. Faster growth last month still fits within the context of market expectations, however, because it didn’t breach new territory on important price metrics. The stakes are raised now for July retail sales, core PCE and then August CPI.
  • Three agency updates this week, starting with Fannie’s excellent second quarter. Then, charts and highlights from the stress tests released this week for Fannie and Freddie as of the end of 2017. Compared with the last two years, catastrophic risk is declining nicely for both enterprises. Last, a look at improving net income for Farm Credit.
  • Contact FTN Financial for further updates on global currencies, credit and rate trends. The embedded link to Economic Weekly will be live this afternoon.
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